Hybrid News

Not another fuel cell vehicle

The hydrogen economy. For decades that was Detroit’s mantra. Why worry about trying to increase fuel economy when gas was cheap and fuel cell vehicles were just around the corner, they argued. After decades of delays, the success of the Toyota Prius, and battery development breakthroughs, most have come to favor the plug-in revolution, rather than the hydrogen revolution. While hydrogen might make sense one day, battery-powered electrification makes more sense today.

But does plug-in electrification make enough sense today?

No one has yet proven that the safe, reliable and cost-effective mass production of battery technology for plug-ins is viable. Likewise, most lithium is mined in only a few places in the world, and there is much potential for supply and demand conflicts. Current NiMH technology, found in today’s hybrid vehicles, is even more problematic for wide scale adoption.

None of this should be used as an excuse to limit efforts towards electrification. However, it does beg the question of whether electrification is enough, at least for today. Hence, isn’t a push towards much smaller and lighter vehicles, for instance, also very important? Ultimately, shouldn’t the revolution of the automobile be about much more than just what powers an automobile?

Original post by Dahcredyns

The Saturn Vue hybrid at the LA Auto Show

Several years ago, as the Toyota Prius was making hybrid cars synonymous with green in America, GM and Chrsyler decided to act. Instead of challenging the Prius, however, these two US automakers decided to convert GM’s hybrid technology developed for buses into a hybrid powertrain that would turn the worst gas-guzzlers into something more respectable.

Many quickly called the technology superior to Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive, while claiming it focused on the most fuel inefficient vehicles. I always wondered, how much is it going to cost and how many people really need those gas-guzzlers?

Today, we’ve found out most people don′t really need those guzzlers and the costs of making them more efficient are just too high. Thus, Chrysler’s dual mode hybrid vehicles were DOA, and GM’s aren′t far behind - at least their initial dual mode hybrids.

The Saturn Vue hybrid, due out in a few months, however, is a much smarter sized SUV for today’s world and it easily provides the best sale’s potential of any GM hybrid, at least if priced competitively. But, now that Saturn is potentially on GM’s chopping block, is it DOA as well?

Original post by Dahcredyns

NiMH-only until fourth gen Prius?

Due to costs and reliability concerns, Toyota has decided that the third generation Prius will never use lithium-ion batteries during its lifetime. Instead, the third generation of the Hybrid Synergy Drive will continue to use NiMH batteries - at least for the Prius - until at least the fourth generation Prius according to an unconfirmed report.

Toyota, according to the report, still plans to use lithium in the future. Also, Toyota has hinted at the possibility of lithium-powered Lexus hybrid vehicles. Thus, considering the production increases expected for the 2010 Prius, perhaps it’s just not the right platform to validate lithium technology.

Original post by Dahcredyns

Build more hybrids?

If there is one thing that has annoyed me with the US auto industry more than anything the last 5 years, it’s been the lack of hybrid cars, especially a Prius-fighter. Even GM’s Chevy Volt really isn’t a Prius-fighter. For many more years, there is going to be a need for both conventional hybrids and plug-in vehicles. Yet, I′ve still not heard of a plan from one US automaker to directly challenge the Toyota Prius.

Would a detailed plan to build more hybrid vehicles, in addition to plug-ins, sell you on an automaker bailout? What else would it take? Serious cuts in executive compensation? Serious cuts it UAW benefits?

What would sell you on the legitimacy of a bailout, or a bridge loan, for US automakers? Can anything sell you?

Original post by Dahcredyns

Insight: More realistic than plug-ins?

When it comes to buying a car, sticker price is the most important issue for most consumers. Unfortunately, hybrid cars and plug-in vehicles cost more, which makes it harder for manufacturers to turn a profit on such vehicles.

Thus, while GM has hung its green PR hat on the Chevy Volt plug-in vehicle, the Volt isn’t going to help GM’s bottom line for many years.

“In 10 years are they [at GM] going to solve the technological problems with respect to the Volt? Sure,” says Maryann Keller, an automotive analyst and author of a book on GM. “But are they going to be able to stake their survival, which is really more of a now to five-year proposition, on it? I’d say they can’t. They have to stake their future on Malibus, the Chevy Cruze, and much more conventional technologies.”

Add $2.00 gas and how many consumers are really willing to pay a few thousand extra for a hybrid, or several thousand extra for a plug-in hybrid?

Is a mass conversion to plug-in vehicles possible in the next few decades without significantly higher gas prices? Isn′t it time to get serious about a new gas tax?

Original post by Dahcredyns

Proof that BMW is a green automaker?

I’ve now read a number of articles that discuss how green the LA Auto Show is, and how committed automakers are to green technology. Please. What show were these journalists attending?

The Honda Insight hybrid, the Ford Fusion hybrid, the Mini E, the Toyota Camry Natural Gas hybrid and some fuel cell cars demonstrate how much more committed the auto industry is to green technology? Wow! You have to be drinking some pretty good kool-aide to buy that green message.

Certainly, the Honda Insight is a legitimate effort. But, 25,000 Fusion hybrids per year? Whatever. A few hundred two-seat electric Mini E’s? That’ll make a difference. A Toyota Camry Natural Gas Hybrid? There are no plans to sell it. Fuel cell cars? Awesome! There’s a monkey ready to fly out of my ass with plans for the hydrogen highway.

Automakers aren′t green and they won′t be green any time soon. By 2020, US automakers testified before Congress that 35 mpg fleet fuel economy by 2020 was already pushing the limits of possibility. That won′t come close to ending foreign oil dependency, nor will it reduce CO2 emissions nearly enough.

Outside of some minor, niche automakers, there is no such thing as a green automaker. Not even close.

Original post by Dahcredyns

The buzz amongst consumers?

I spent a few hours at the LA Auto Show this weekend to get a feel for consumer reaction to the show and to specific vehicles, particularly hybrid vehicles. Obviously, consumers don’t go to auto shows only looking for vehicles they would buy, they also go to live out fantasies of Ferrari ownership, or Rolls Royce luxury. So, following the crowds isn’t always indicative of real world consumerism.

Nonetheless, I did notice a few interesting things. For instance, when it came to Ford and GM, neither the new Fusion hybrid nor the Chevy Volt most piqued consumer interest, instead attendees flocked to the Mustang and the Camaro.

In fact, the Fusion hybrid seemed to garner little interest, maybe because it looks just like, well, a Fusion.

Likewise, the Saturn Flextreme - built on the same E Flex Platform as the Volt - seemed to draw more interest than the Volt, perhaps because of its more unusual design. Still, the Volt was much more popular than the Fusion hybrid.

Again, auto shows might not be good barometers of consumer interest, however, if automakers did use the LA Show to help determine future consumer wants and desires, performance and gas-guzzling would still rule.

Original post by Dahcredyns

Just one piece of Toyota’s R&D puzzle

Despite the slow down in auto sales, R&D spending by Japanese automakers is not slowing down. Hybrid cars, electric vehicles - even vehicles that drive themselves - are all part of the future product portfolios of Japanese automakers. These automakers, according to this CNN Video, aren’t just thinking about next year, but the next decade and even the decade after that.

While I believe that in recent years US automakers have worked on developing a new business model, they didn’t act fast enough to counter decades of maximized profits at the expense of the future. One way or another, those days are over.

Original post by Dahcredyns

Bigger impact: $19,000 hybrid or $30,000 plug-in?

A while back I was reading about how EnerDel was increasing its battery producing capabilities in expectation of some new lithium-ion contracts. Essentially, EnerDel will have the ability to produce enough batteries for 45,000 electric vehicles per year, or 450,000 hybrid electric vehicles. For weeks now, these numbers have been churning in my head.

Then, on the eve of the LA Auto Show, Nissan CEO Carol Ghosn told CNBC that he believed that by 2016, the combined auto industry would be able to make 10 percent of the US fleet electric.

Well, using those EnerDel numbers, if there are enough batteries to convert 10 percent of conventional vehicles into electric vehicles, then there would be enough batteries to convert 100 percent of conventional vehicles into hybrid vehicles.

Which path is more productive? Are some automakers focusing on EVs because it delays a fast, massive change, while offseting the fuel economy of CAFE-killing guzzlers?

Original post by Dahcredyns

Ford’s first hybrid car at the LA Auto Show

Americans want hybrid cars. That’s the result of a recent survey according to GreenCarCongress.

Two thirds of Americans, despite declining gas prices, are interested in making their next auto purchase a hybrid. Even more interesting, most consumers aren′t sure that hybrids are as reliable or comfortable as conventional vehicles, yet they are still interested.

In fact, consumers would like to trade in their gas guzzlers for hybrid vehicles, but they can’t afford to make the move.

Sadly, even if these consumers could afford to trade in guzzlers for hybrids, there wouldn′t be enough available, and their won′t be for many years.

Original post by Dahcredyns

The coolest green debut in LA

Yesterday, as I walked the floor of the LA Auto Show for what seemed like the 1000th time in two days, I felt very disappointed. While there were more hybrid cars and electric vehicles than ever displayed here, few will have any impact in the next couple of years. Many will never even be built.

When it comes to fuel economy, particularly city fuel economy, the auto industry has little to offer. 25,000 Ford Fusion hybrids just isn′t enough. Nor are small cars, such as the Mini Cooper and its EPA estimated 26 mpg city fuel economy.

And, sure, maybe Nissan will have cost-competitive EVs in 2012, but until then we get nothing? Even then, are EVs the focus of the auto industry, or just a niche product to balance their guzzlers into CAFE compliance?

Green automakers? That’s an oxymoron.

Original post by Dahcredyns

Still the green standard

GM debuted the Chevy Volt almost 2 years ago, yet it is still the green standard when it comes to Auto Shows. Sure, there are some pretty cool fuel cell vehicles out there, but PHEVs and EVs are much more realistic in the short to mid-term. In that segment, the Volt still stands above the rest.

Still, the competition is heating up. The Mini E, the Honda Insight and Hyundia’s Hybrid Blue Drive were new developments at the LA Auto Show this year. And the competition will heat up even more at the Detroit Show in January when Toyota debuts the Third Generation Prius.

Plus, Hyundai, Honda and Toyota are seeking to challenge the Volt with much cheaper, conventional hybrid cars. Of course, Hyundai and Toyota will also challenge the Volt directly. Will GM ever challenge the Prius and Insight directly?

With two years before the Volt hits the streets, it seems obvious the competition will heat up even more. Will the Volt still dominate next year’s LA Auto Show?

Original post by Dahcredyns

Just an auto show filler?

Let’s be honest. When it comes to Toyota and hybrid cars, it’s all about the Prius, especially when the third generation Prius is just months from making its North American debut.

In the past couple of years, Toyota has used the green-focused LA Auto Show to, well, show off its new gas-guzzlers, such as the Sequoia.

This year, Toyota will show off its Camry natural gas hybrid. Yet, under the Obama administration, does natural gas mean anything? Is this hybrid even less valuable the Sequoia?

Original post by Dahcredyns

Ford Fusion hybrid

There are going to be a number of new hybrid cars at this year’s LA Auto Show. While much of the hype has been focused on the Honda Insight hybrid, it is the Ford Fusion hybrid that I am almost most interested in, almost.

The new Fusion hybrid will debut Ford’s new hybrid powertrain - no longer dependent on Ford’s Hybrid Synergy Drive. Even more exciting, it will out perform the Toyota Camry hybrid in fuel economy.

Unfortunately, however, Ford only intends to produce 25,000 Fusion and Milan hybrid vehicles per year. That simply doesn′t cut the mustard. It also makes me wonder, is Ford’s new hybrid powertrain truly cost-competitive?

Original post by Dahcredyns

I still love the Volt, but it’s time for some reality

On Monday, after reading some stories supporting a US automaker bailout to save the Chevy Volt, I slammed the suggestion (more). It’s not that I don’t believe in the viability of the Volt, it’s that I don’t believe the Volt is the critical piece of this discussion.

After watching the CEO’s of the Big 3 testify before Congress Tuesday, I believe that even more. Both Ford and GM insisted that the new CAFE requirements - 35 mpg by 2020 - were the absolute most achievable limit. Any new strings for the bailout, they argued, should not include higher fuel economy standards.

Hence, by 2020, most US-made vehicles will still be conventional vehicles - though conventional vehicles with direct injection and other technologies that will increase fuel economy - not vehicles like the Volt.

More important, while 35 mpg fleet fuel economy means foreign oil dependency from the Persian Gulf will be reduced by half, America will still be terribly dependent upon foreign oil in 2020. This reality, not the Volt, should be the focus of the bailout talks.

Why can’t automakers help end foreign oil dependency by 2020? If EVs and hybrid cars can’t get us there be 2020, what other technologies, fuels, etc. can get us there? Can cellulosic ethanol be significantly increased in the next 10 years? Can natural gas help? Something else?

The US auto industry needs government help, and I’m inclined to help. However, if the government and US tax payers are going to partner with the US auto industry to achieve success, why not strive for revolutionary success?

Original post by Dahcredyns